TTO began in 2002 with a very short-term Breakout Trading
methodology. It was very successful, especially during the
extremely challenging bear market in 2002. However, sensing
a major change in the market's attitude, in the Spring of
2003 we shifted to a longer-term strategy focusing on
holding positions for a longer period of time in an effort
to achieve larger returns on a per-trade basis. The chart
above shows a portfolio simulation for a $1MM account
trading the Tactical Trading Stock recommendations. The
portfolio was set up to put 10% of current equity into each
new position with a maximum number of positions capped at
20. The portfolio reached the 20 position mark in spring
2002 and spring 2003. The total simulated portfolio return
for the four and three quarter years shown is 210%. That is
very impressive when compared to the S&P 500, which advanced
about 24% over the same period and the NASD Composite which
advanced about 40%.
Over the four and three quarter years, the average level of
exposure is just under 80% meaning an average of 8 positions
were held. The Simulation represents 634 trades with 325
winning trades averaging gains of 9.19% and 309 losing
trades averaging a 5.6% loss.
I have always been of the opinion that the market goes
through phases when it is very generous and periods when it
is very stingy. When the market is being generous it is
important to capitalize during those opportunities. Based on
the character of the above performance record, it is clear
we have done an excellent job of taking advantage of the
market during its most generous phases while we have held
our own during the more challenging periods.
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